Putin no longer tries to win on the battlefield

Putin knows he will lose the war. He must realize that all these new conscripts will arrive too late, too poorly trained and too poorly equipped to turn the tide of battle. It is simply an attempt to convince its population that there is still hope. The same goes for the nuclear posture. Putin knows that the use of a single nuclear weapon will turn world opinion against him so much that he is sure to lose.

All the man does with mobilization, with talk of advanced weapons and with the rattle of the nuclear saber is to keep himself alive and in power long enough for his real strategies to take effect.

Putin is a vile SOB, and he plays a vicious game. He intends to (not necessarily in order of importance):

  1. Destroy the economies of all Western countries, especially in North America and the EU
  2. To cause as much suffering as possible in the EU and the United States It is about reducing the gap between the ruined economy of Russia and that of the free world
  3. Influencing the United States Elections to Empower Republicans in the Short to Medium Term
  4. Elect leaders in the United States to eventually convert them into an authoritarian dictatorship
  5. Creating gaps between different NATO and EU nations.
  6. Prevent Sweden and Finland from joining NATO
  7. Keep as much as he can of occupied Ukraine
  8. And, of course, clinging to power in Russia and to his own life.

All the joy of Putin’s defeat in Ukraine? Sure, but he’s not playing checkers here, folks. He plays chess, and in 3 dimensions at that.

The deal that Putin somehow struck with MBS (Mohammed bin Salman, leader of Saudi Arabia) to drastically cut oil production is clearly an attempt to wreck oil prices from the EU and US. This will cause difficulties worldwide, in support of points 1 and 2 above. It will also cause inflation in the United States, supporting the Republicans – and Putin’s point 3. The victory of the Republicans in 2022 will also be a great support for point 4.

Rising energy costs will tend to create fissures in NATO and in the EU. Point 5 covered.

Point 6 is undecided. To join NATO, Sweden and Finland need the approval of Erdogan (authoritarian semi-dictator of Turkey) and Orban (real dictator of Hungary). Both are playing in Putin’s team at the moment. He only needs one of them to veto NATO membership. We have some hope here. Turkey and Hungary could be persuaded to vote for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

Ukraine ensures that Putin loses many conquered territories. Point 7 looks good right now. There is hope that they can recover all or most of their country successfully from the battlefield.

Point 8 is perhaps Putin’s most vulnerable problem. In order to maintain the appearance that his army could still win, he takes measures that frighten ordinary Russians and make him look very weak. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to win battles and territories. Starting today, they are also destroying Putin’s favorite bridge. The large number of people trying to flee Russia since conscription was announced clearly shows that Russians are getting enough truth to know what is going on.

Let’s hope the Russian people and/or oligarchs abandon this evil SOB and demand peace. The world will be a better place if they do.

About William Ferguson

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